Mortgage Rate Volatility, What’s Behind it?

What’s Causing Today’s Mortgage Rate Swings?

If you’ve been tracking mortgage rates, you’ve probably noticed how much they’re has been Mortgage Rate Volatility. One day they climb, and the next they drop. Why all the ups and downs? Let’s explore the key reasons behind this volatility and what it means for you.

How Elections Impact Mortgage Rates and Mortgage Rate Volatility

Political events, like elections, often shake up financial markets. This election season is no different. Markets react not only to the election results but also to expected policy changes. According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB):

“…the primary reason interest rates have been on the rise pertains to the uncertainty surrounding the presidential election. Although the election is now complete, there continue to be growing concerns over budget deficits.”

This uncertainty has nudged mortgage rates upward in the short term. Beyond elections, factors like international tensions, trade policies, and supply chain disruptions can push investors toward safer assets, like bonds. This, in turn, affects mortgage rates. In short, the more uncertainty, the more rates may shift.

The Role of the Federal Reserve and the Economy

Inflation and unemployment are major drivers of mortgage rates. The Federal Reserve (Fed) has been working to control inflation while keeping an eye on employment trends. When inflation eases and the job market stabilizes, the Fed often adjusts its Federal Funds Rate.

Although the Fed doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, its decisions heavily influence them. For example, after the Fed’s November 6–7 meeting, mortgage rates dipped slightly, as much of the market had already factored in the expected rate cut.

What’s Ahead for Mortgage Rates?

In the coming months, mortgage rates will likely respond to shifts in Fed policies and other economic indicators. With the transition to a new administration, additional unpredictability may arise. A report from The Mortgage Reports highlights this:

“Today’s economic indicators come with mixed pressures on mortgage rates, and we’re likely to be in for a good amount of volatility as markets adjust and respond to the election…”

To navigate these swings, it’s smart to rely on a team of professionals. Real estate experts can help you understand what’s happening and guide you through important decisions.

Bottom Line

Mortgage rates will continue to be influenced by economic changes and political developments. To stay ahead, lean on trusted real estate agents and mortgage lenders. Their expertise can help you make informed decisions, even in a shifting market.

Richard Iarossi, REALTOR®
Coldwell Banker Realty
1300 Main Chapel Way, Gambrills, MD 21054
443-995-9595 Cell
410-721-0103 Office
richard.iarossi@cbmove.com
richsellshomes.com

#richardiarossirealtor
#croftonmdrealestate
#annapolismdrealestate
#croftonhomesforsale

Investors Buying Homes – It Really is a Small Percentage?

Let’s be real – buying a home right now is tough. You’re scrolling through listings, rushing to open houses, and maybe even losing out to more competitive offers. Somewhere along the way, you might’ve heard the reason it’s so hard to find a home is because big Wall Street investors are swooping in and snatching up everything in sight.

But here’s the thing: that’s mostly a myth. While investors buying homes is real, according to Redfin, they’re a relatively small part:

Here’s what that means. Five out of every six homes are being purchased by everyday homebuyers like you – not big investors.

So, before you get discouraged, let’s take a look at what’s really going on. You might be surprised to learn that Wall Street isn’t the competition you may think it is.

Most Investors Are Small Mom-and-Pops

Most investors aren’t the mega corporations you’ve probably heard about. In fact, many are your neighbors. A recent report from CoreLogic shows most investors are small, mom-and-pop types who own fewer than 10 properties. They aren’t massive companies with endless resources. Picture your neighbor who has another home they’re renting out or a vacation getaway.

Only about 1% of the market is owned by large, mega investors with thousands of properties. The majority are still owned by individuals and smaller investors – not the Wall Street giants.

Investor Purchases Are Declining

Not only are most investors small, but overall investor purchases have been on the decline. As the same report from CoreLogic says:

“Investors made 80,000 purchases in June 2024, compared with 112,000 in June 2023, and a nearly 50% percent drop from the high of 149,000 purchases in June 2021 . . .”

And what does this mean going forward? CoreLogic goes on to point out this downward trend is expected to continue into 2025.

So, if it seems like competition with investors is pushing you out of the market, it might help to know that investor activity is actually slowing down.

Bottom Line

The idea that Wall Street is buying up all the homes is largely a myth. Most investors are small ones, and the share of homes purchased by investors is declining – so you can take this one off your worry list.

If you have questions about the housing market, let’s talk.

Richard Iarossi, REALTOR
Coldwell Banker Realty
1300 Main Chapel Way, Gambrills, MD 21054
443-995-9595 Cell
410-721-0103 Office
richard.iarossi@cbmove.com
richsellshomes.com

Don’t Let These Two Seller Concerns Hold You Back from Selling Your House

If you’re debating whether or not you want to sell right now you may have the same two seller concerns as many owners. It might be because you’ve got some unanswered questions, like if moving really makes sense in today’s market. Maybe you’re wondering if it’s even a good idea to move right now. Or you’re stressed because you think you won’t find a house you like.

To put your mind at ease, here’s how to tackle these two seller concerns head-on.

Is It Even a Good Idea To Move Right Now?

If you own a home already, you may have been holding off because you don’t want to sell and take on a higher mortgage rate on your next house. But your move may be a lot more feasible than you think, and that’s because of your equity.

Equity is the current market value of your home minus what you still owe on your loan. And thanks to the rapid appreciation we saw over the past few years, your equity has gotten a big boost. Just how much are we talking about? See for yourself. As Dr. Selma Hepp, Chief Economist at CoreLogic, explains:

“Persistent home price growth has continued to fuel home equity gains for existing homeowners who now average about $315,000 in equity and almost $129,000 more than at the onset of the pandemic.”

Here’s why this can be such a game-changer when you sell. You can use that equity to put down a larger amount on your next home, which means financing less at today’s mortgage rate. And in some cases, you may even be able to buy your next home in cash, avoiding mortgage rates altogether.

The bottom line? Your equity could be the key to making your next move possible.

Will I Be Able To Find a Home I Like?

If this is on your mind, it’s probably because you remember just how low the supply of homes for sale got over the past few years. It felt nearly impossible to find a home to buy because there were so few available.

But finding a home in today’s market isn’t as challenging. That’s because the number of homes for sale is growing, giving you more options to choose from. Data from Realtor.com shows just how much inventory has increased – it’s up almost 30% year-over-year (see graph below):

And even though inventory is still below pre-pandemic levels, this is the highest it’s been in quite a while. That means you have more options for your move, but your house should still stand out to buyers at the same time. That’s a sweet spot for you.

It’s important to note, though, that this balance varies by local market. Some places may have more homes for sale than others, so working with a local real estate agent is the best way to see what inventory trends look like in your area.

Bottom Line

If you’re thinking about selling, hopefully these concerns haven’t kept you up at night. With this information, you should realize you don’t have to let the what-if’s delay your move anymore.

Let’s connect so you have the data and the local perspective you need to move forward.

Home Prices Aren’t Declining, But Headlines Might Make You Think They Are

If you’ve seen the news lately about home sellers slashing prices, it’s a great example of how headlines do more to terrify than clarify. Here’s what’s really happening with prices.

The bottom line is home prices are higher than they were a year ago at this time, and they’re expected to keep rising, just at a slower pace.

I read a recent article from Redfin notes,

“Price Drops Hit Highest Level in 18 Months As High Rates Dampen Buyer Demand.”

And that might make you think prices are declining.

Now, while it’s true the latest report from Realtor.com also shows 16.6% of homes on the market had price reductions in May, which is up from 12.7% last May, that doesn’t mean overall home prices are falling.

The key is knowing the difference between the asking price and the sold price.

I want you to Understand Asking Price vs. Sold Price

In essence, the asking price, also known as a listing price, is the amount a seller hopes to get for their home when they list it. In reality, sellers can’t just put any price tag on their house and expect it to sell for top dollar. Today’s buyers are savvy customers, and when they aren’t willing to pay a premium for a home because their budgets are strained by higher mortgage rates, sellers need to adjust. And that’s what’s happening right now.

Based on market factors and what offers that seller receives, that asking price can change. If a seller isn’t getting much foot traffic, you may see them revise the price and make an adjustment to reignite interest in the home – and sometimes that’s because they’ve overpriced it from the start. That’s where price reductions come in, and when you see “price drops” in a headline, it sounds like declining home prices.

Mike Simonsen, CEO and Founder of Altos Research, says:

“Not only is the share of homes with price cuts elevated compared to one year ago, but more price cuts are happening each week than last year.”

On the other hand, the final sold price is the amount a buyer actually pays when the transaction is complete.

Here’s the most important thing to note: Actual sold prices are still rising, and they’re expected to continue to do so at least over the next 5 years.

What Does This Mean for Home Prices?

So, while there’s been an increase in price reductions recently, this doesn’t mean overall home values are declining. Instead, it’s a sign that demand is moderating. And, as a result, sellers are adjusting their expectations to align with today’s market reality.

Even with more price reductions, home values are still growing on an annual basis, as they do nearly every year in the housing market. According to the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), home prices went up 6.6% over the last year (see below):

This map shows how prices rose just about everywhere in the country, indicating the market is not in decline.

So, while seller price reductions are often a leading indicator that prices may moderate in the months ahead, which experts have been saying for a while is expected to happen, they aren’t necessarily reason for alarm. The same article from Redfin also states:

“. . .those metrics suggest sale-price growth could soften in the coming months as persistently high mortgage rates turn off homebuyers. For now, the median-home sale price is up 4.3% year over year to another record high. . .”

And with inventory as tight as it is today, price moderation is much more likely in upcoming months than price declines.

Why This Is Good News for Buyers and Sellers

For buyers, more realistic asking prices mean a better chance of securing a home at a fair price. It also means you can enter the market with more confidence, knowing prices are stabilizing rather than continuing to skyrocket.

For sellers, you need to understand the possibility that adjusting your asking price can lead to faster sales and fewer price negotiations. Setting a realistic price from the start can attract more serious buyers and lead to smoother transactions.

Bottom Line

While the uptick in price reductions might seem troubling, it’s not a cause for concern. It reflects a market adjusting to new conditions. Home prices are continuing to grow, just at a more moderate pace.

Richard Iarossi, REALTOR
Coldwell Banker Realty
1300 Main Chapel Way, Gambrills, MD 21054
443-995-9595 Cell
410-721-0103 Office
richard.iarossi@cbmove.com
richsellshomes.com

#richardiarossirealtor
#homeprices
#croftonmdrealestate
#annapolismdrealestate

Should You Sell or Rent Your House?

When you’re ready to move, figuring out what to do with your house is a big decision, should you sell or rent your house? And today, more homeowners are considering renting their home instead of selling it.

Recent data from Zillow shows about two-thirds (66%) of sellers thought about renting their home before listing, with nearly a third (28%) taking that possibility seriously. Compared to 2021, when fewer than half (47%) of homeowners considered renting before selling, it’s clear this trend is on the rise.

So, should you sell your house and use the money toward your next home or keep it as a rental to build long-term wealth? Let’s walk through some important questions to help you determine the right path for your financial and lifestyle goals.

Is Your House a Good Fit for Renting?

Before you decide what to do, it’s important to think about if it would make a good rental in the first place. For instance, if you’re moving far away, managing ongoing maintenance could become a major hassle. Other factors to consider are if your neighborhood is ideal for rentals and if your house needs significant repairs before it’s ready for tenants.

If any of these situations sound familiar, selling might be a more practical choice.

Are You Ready for the Realities of Being a Landlord?

Managing a rental property involves more than collecting monthly rent. It’s a commitment that can be time-consuming and challenging.

For example, you may get maintenance calls at all hours of the day or discover damage that needs to be repaired before a new tenant moves in. There’s also the risk of tenants missing payments or breaking their lease, which can add unexpected stress and financial strain. As Redfin notes:

“Landlords have to fix things like broken pipes, defunct HVAC systems, and structural damage, among other essential repairs. If you don’t have a few thousand dollars on hand to take care of these repairs, you could end up in a bind.”

Do You Understand the Costs?

If you’re considering renting primarily for passive income, remember, there are additional costs you should anticipate. As an article from Bankrate explains:

Mortgage and Property Taxes: You still need to pay these expenses, even if the rent doesn’t cover all of it.

Insurance: Landlord insurance typically costs about 25% more than regular home insurance, and it’s necessary to cover damages and injuries.

Maintenance and Repairs: Plan to spend at least 1% of the home’s value annually, more if the house is older.

Finding a Tenant: This involves advertising costs and potentially paying for background checks.

Vacancies: If the property sits empty between tenants, you’ll lose rental income and have to cover the cost of the mortgage until you find a new tenant.

Management and HOA Fees: A property manager can ease the burden, but typically charges about 10% of the rent. HOA fees are an additional cost too, if applicable.

Bottom Line

To sum it all up, should you sell or rent out your home is a personal decision. Let’s connect so you have a pro on your side to help you feel supported and informed as you make your decision.

Richard Iarossi, REALTOR
Coldwell Banker Realty
1300 Main Chapel Way, Gambrills, MD 21054
443-995-9595 Cell
410-721-0103 Office
richard.iarossi@cbmove.com
richsellshomes.com

#sellorrent #richiarossirealtor #croftonrealestate #annapolisrealestate

Overhead view of a community in Odenton MD

As a real estate professional, it’s key to understand how different market metrics connect. Right now, the Months Supply of Inventory is 1.26, which points to a seller’s market where demand is higher than supply. This low inventory increases competition among buyers, often pushing prices up.

The 26% rise in Months of Inventory over the past year suggests the market might be shifting toward more balance. With more inventory, buyers could have more choices, which may help stabilize prices.

The Median Days on Market is just 19 days, showing a fast-paced market where homes sell quickly. This quick turnaround, driven by low inventory and high demand, means buyers need to act fast.

The List-to-Sold Price Ratio of 99.8% shows that properties sell close to their list prices, emphasizing a strong seller’s market. Sellers can expect offers near asking price, while buyers should prepare to make competitive bids.

Finally, the Median Sold Price of $492,500 shows the typical selling price, helping buyers and sellers see pricing trends in the area.

These metrics reveal a competitive market with low inventory, high demand, and quick sales. Both buyers and sellers need to be ready to move fast and work with a skilled agent to navigate this market.

More Homes, Slower Price Growth – What It Means for You as a Buyer

There are more homes on the market right now than there have been in years – and that could be a game changer for you if you’re ready to buy. Let’s look at two reasons why.

You Have More Options To Choose From

An article from Realtor.com helps explain just how much the number of homes for sale has gone up this year:

“There were 29.2% more homes actively for sale on a typical day in October compared with the same time in 2023, marking the twelfth consecutive month of annual inventory growth and the highest count since December 2019.”

And while the number of homes on the market still isn’t quite back to where it was in the years leading up to the pandemic, this is definitely an improvement (see graph below):

With more homes available for sale now, you have more options to choose from. As Hannah Jones, Senior Economic Research Analyst at Realtor.com, explains:

“Though still lower than pre-pandemic, burgeoning home supply means buyers have more options . . .”

That means you have a better chance of finding a house that meets your needs. It also means the buying process doesn’t have to feel quite as rushed, because more options on the market means you’ll likely face less competition from other buyers.

Home Price Growth Is Slowing

When there aren’t many homes for sale, buyers have to compete more fiercely for the ones that are available. That’s what happened a few years ago, and it’s what drove prices up so quickly.

But now, the increasing number of homes on the market is causing home price growth to slow down (see graph below):

In certain markets, the number of available homes has not only bounced back to normal, but has even surpassed pre-pandemic levels. In those areas, home price growth has slowed or stalled completely. As Lance Lambert, Co-Founder of ResiClub, explains:

“Generally speaking, housing markets where active inventory has returned to pre-pandemic 2019 levels have seen home price growth soften or even decline outright from their 2022 peak.”

Slower or stalled price growth could give you a better chance of finding something within your budget. As Dr. Anju Vajja, Deputy Director at the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), says:

“For the third consecutive month U.S. house prices showed little movement . . . relatively flat house prices may improve housing affordability.”

But remember, inventory levels and home prices are going to vary by market.

So, having a real estate agent who knows the local area can be a big advantage. They can help you understand the trends in your community, which can make a real difference in finding a home that fits your needs and budget.

Bottom Line

More housing options – and the slower home price growth they bring – can help you find and buy a home that works for your lifestyle and budget. So don’t hesitate to reach out if you want to talk about the growing number of choices you have right now.

Richard Iarossi, REALTOR®
Coldwell Banker Realty
1300 Main Chapel Way, Gambrills, MD 21054
443-995-9595 Cell
410-721-0103 Office
richard.iarossi@cbmove.com
rich@richsellshomes.com

#crofton #croftonrealestate #croftonhomesforsale #richardiarossirealtor
#annapolis #annapolisrealestate #annapolishomesforsale

What’s Motivating Homeowners to Move Right Now

Over the past few years, some homeowners have decided to delay their move because they don’t want to sell and take on a higher mortgage rate on their next home. Maybe you’re thinking the same thing. And honestly, that’s no surprise. It’s a very common roadblock and is one of the biggest factors that’s kept the number of homes on the market so low for so long.

But a growing number of homeowners are deciding they just can’t wait any longer. Often, it’s because of personal or lifestyle change. As Redfin explains:

“Some homeowners are opting to bite the bullet and give up their low rate in order to move. Many are selling because a major life event like a job change, or divorce . . .”

If you’re weighing the decision to move, take a look at some of the top reasons others are choosing to sell. You might find those are reason enough for you to move now, too.

It’s Time for a Change

A new job in a different city, a desire to be closer to family, or simply wanting a change of scenery can all spark the need to sell.

Let’s say you’ve landed a great job offer that requires relocating, listing your current home quickly may be the next logical step.

There’s Just Not Enough Space in Your Current House

Sometimes, your current home just doesn’t fit your lifestyle anymore. A growing family, the need for a home office, or more room for entertaining can all drive the decision to upgrade to a larger space.

As an example, if you live in a condo and have a baby on the way, selling might be the next best move so you can find a larger home that suits your needs.

Retirement or Wanting To Downsize

On the flip side, some homeowners are ready to downsize. This could be due to children moving out, retirement, or simply wanting less to maintain.

If you’re newly retired and dreaming of a simpler lifestyle, downsizing to a smaller home could free up both time and resources to enjoy this new chapter of life.

Changes in Relationship Status

Big changes like divorce, separation, or marriage often lead to a need for new living arrangements.

If you just went through a divorce, selling the house you once shared may allow both of you to move forward and find a living situation that works better for you now.

Health and Mobility Needs

Health concerns, especially those that affect mobility, can also drive the decision to sell. A home that once worked well might no longer suit your needs.

If this sounds like your experience right now, selling your current home to move into a more accessible space, or even using the proceeds for assisted living, could significantly improve your quality of life.

Bottom Line

Selling your home isn’t just about market conditions or mortgage rates—it’s also about making the best decision for your lifestyle and future. As Bankrate says:

“Deciding whether it’s the right time to sell your home is a very personal choice. There are numerous important questions to consider, both financial and lifestyle-based . . . Your future plans and goals should be a significant part of the equation.”

If a major life change has you thinking about moving, now might still be the right time to sell. Let’s connect so you have an expert to help you navigate the process.

#homesellers #richiarossirealtor #moving

Richard Iarossi, REALTOR
Coldwell Banker Realty
1300 Main Chapel Way, Gambrills, MD 21054
443-995-9595 Cell
410-721-0103 Office
richard.iarossi@cbmove.com
richsellshomes.com